Global Warming

[PointyHairedJedi]

I have quite a simple question really - do you believe that this is a Real Thing, and that we have to get off of our fat asses and do something about it Right Now; or do you believe that it is just so much scaremongering by scientists and that so called global warming is nothing more than a naturally occuring process that would be happening if we were here or not?

[Chancellor Valium]

Real Thing. In any case, it can't be a bad idea to do something...

[PointyHairedJedi]

Indeed. Even ignoring every other reason and making it a purely economic argument, the cost of global warming even in the relatively short term (the next few decades, say) vastly vastly outweighs the cost of taking steps to retard its progress.

[Chancellor Valium]

Indeedo-wap.

[Nate the Great]

And how do you "retard its progress," exactly? I can't figure out how. Even if you could somehow stop all fossil fuel consumption right now, it'd still take decades for the atmosphere to recover, right?

I'm still a little annoyed that the vast majority of alternative fuel sources and more efficient car designs have been shot in the cradle by the oil industry and their squadrons of lobbyists and lawyers. Oil makes them rich NOW, so they want to keep making money NOW, because the consequences will happen LATER. It's absolutely insane.

On a side note, am I misinformed by my impression that nuclear power has gotten a lot safer lately, but the politicians still won't embrace it as much as Europe does because they're afraid of public opinion. All we need them to say is, "Nuclear power is so safe that if we were to convert over and only use gas for cars, the price would drop to a buck a gallon and our energy bills would be cut in half," and we'd have the masses swarming every state capital BEGGING for nuclear power, right?

[Burt]

I think it's must be something real. I can't believe all the stuff we do to the Earth won't have some bad effects. I think it might be a little overstated. I mean, I've read about the 'mini iceage' in the 17th-18th century, when the river Thames froze over for a number of years each winter. I guess sometimes things can be weird on their own. Evertime we have a hot summer in England some people says it's because of 'Global Warming' - couldn't it just be a hot summer?
But on the other hand there is all the evidence about the ice in Greenland melting much quicker...So something must be up!

[PointyHairedJedi]

Originally Posted by Infinite Improbability

And how do you "retard its progress," exactly? I can't figure out how. Even if you could somehow stop all fossil fuel consumption right now, it'd still take decades for the atmosphere to recover, right?

Not just the atmosphere, but the entire global climate. And it's not about recovery, as such, but more about equillibrium. It's not possible to reduce our impact on the environment to nothing, but it is possible to drastically reduce it. If it takes decades, or longer, for things to stabilize, then so be it - just because it might take a long time is no reason not to do something about it. Some people seem to think that it is though, and unfortunatley a lot of those who are in a position to actually do something think that way (including it seems the current occupant of the White House). There isn't much chance that the public as a whole is going to suddenly wake up one day and thing "Hey, we need to do something about this" simply because the effects of wuch action would impact on what has really become an unsustainable way of life. No more disposable consumer culture, no more cheap flights abroad, no more three-car households - it's hard to see beyond that now to it's inevitable consequence.

You're absolutely right about the oil business. Our global civilisation is based on the consumption of crude oil products. The oil companies know this, and even though some of them are now making small moves in the direction of renewables, the sort of serious persuit that's really needed right now just isn't happening. The oil business won't do anything, so governments must, and fortunately some are (notably Germany and China).

Nuclear is a tricky option at best - France is probably the only country in the EU to actively embrace it - but despite public opinion being mostly firmly against it, it is unforunately something that we're going to have to rely more on anyway. The kicker is and always has been waste. It's got to go somewhere, but nobody wants it next to them. It's the lesser of two evils though, and that's only ever the logical choice to make.

Originally Posted by Burt

I think it's must be something real. I can't believe all the stuff we do to the Earth won't have some bad effects. I think it might be a little overstated. I mean, I've read about the 'mini iceage' in the 17th-18th century, when the river Thames froze over for a number of years each winter. I guess sometimes things can be weird on their own. Evertime we have a hot summer in England some people says it's because of 'Global Warming' - couldn't it just be a hot summer?
But on the other hand there is all the evidence about the ice in Greenland melting much quicker...So something must be up!

There is such a thing as natural climate change, of course, but the long and the short of it is that human activity is short circuiting in just a few hundred years shifts that usually take place in tens of thousands of years, and no-one with even the tiniest grasp of reason could think that that's a good thing.

Greenland is worrying though. I read in New Scientist not so long ago that it's only in the last five or six years that the rate at which the ice sheet is melting has started to surpass its ability to reform - the critial point at which it becomes an unstoppable process could be as little as a century from now. Scary stuff, really.

[Zeke]

Originally Posted by PointyHairedJedi

do you believe that this is a Real Thing, and that we have to get off of our fat asses and do something about it Right Now; or do you believe that it is just so much scaremongering by scientists and that so called global warming is nothing more than a naturally occuring process that would be happening if we were here or not?

Do we need to pick just one? I'm pretty split on the issue. On the one hand, the arguments that global warming is happening are obviously pretty strong, or they wouldn't have so many top scientists convinced. I think the counterarguments are too often written off, but in a way it doesn't matter. What's at issue is how much harm is being done -- no one claims that pumping tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is a good thing or that working to lessen the damage isn't a worthy goal.

On the other hand, there are very good reasons to think that measures like the Kyoto Accord are both unrealistic and unlikely to make a difference. That makes it hard to justify the economic cost. It isn't a black-and-white issue. And I don't like the scare tactics -- no matter who's right about this, and no matter what's done, we're not all going to drown the day after tomorrow.

[PointyHairedJedi]

Originally Posted by Zeke

On the other hand, there are very good reasons to think that measures like the Kyoto Accord are both unrealistic and unlikely to make a difference. That makes it hard to justify the economic cost. It isn't a black-and-white issue.

The big huge problem with any sort of international agreement is that you've got to get everyone to agree to it, and everybody will want to change something. I'll state this again, categorically - the actual cost of taking effective preventative measures is far outweighed by the cost of the effects of global warming. Why it is that most people don't consider that to be sufficient justification? It's not an idealistic argument, it's a purely pragmatic one. And if it turns out that in forty or fifty years time, we've been overestimating the problem? It's still by far better to have done too much than to have not done enough.

Here's another question for everyone - when you think of global warming, what specifically does that make you think of? I'm interested to know how much of the issue people really see.

[Nate the Great]

It used to be that I thought of the ice caps melting, but a few weeks ago that changed. Now, I live in Minnesota and we're known for extreme temperature variations, but over ninety (during the day) for an entire week? That hasn't happened before.

As a subphenomenon of that, we're also known for blizzards in "Minesodah" (p.s. I don't really talk like that) and we really haven't had those these last few years. We've had snow, but not entire weeks of it staying multiple feet deep.

This whole global warming bit is a subphenomenon of why I love Minnesota and will never move to Arizona or Florida, like all of those trecherous snowbirds who used to be my compatriots. Barring a major power outage or fuel shortage, you can always get warmer. Getting cooler is a harder proposition.

[Chancellor Valium]

Myself as a red puddle in the middle of a desert, with the occasional piece of rubble poking out of the endless sands.

[Mighty Jalapeno]

I think of the climate change currently sweeping BC, Canada.

For those of you who don't know, BC is currently infested with mountain pine beetles. Now, when I say BC, I mean... most of the province. Several hundred thousand square kilometers (it's like a square mile, but smaller). In some areas, there are so many beetles that if you stand very, very still in the woods, and listen, you can:

a) actually hear the sounds of chewing, because 10,000 beetles chewing actually makes some noise, and

b) watch sawdust fall like snow.

I have experienced both of these things. Now, people around here are saying "ECOLOGICAL DOOM! END OF THE WORLD!!!!" Forestry is a HEEE-YUUUGE part of the economy here, and beetle-kill trees can't be harvested, really. However, if you talk to anybody from the Ministry of Forests who has a degree, know what they'll say?

"Yup, we know. It's a climate shift, we've known since the 80's. Soon this will all be grasslands. It happens every few thousand years."

They've known. They've known for a LONG time, and it's a natural occurrence. However, that same ministry (now people with marketing and business degrees) are blaming global warming for the eventual death of BC industry, and raising as much panic as they can.

So you know what global warming makes me think of? The greatest scapegoat of all time.